An “Economic Analyst” Blog

We have this page that shows us how we should save so that we can retire without depending on insurance companies. The secret is to never stop saving. For example, you can be a millionaire if you follow the following plan for 35 years: start by saving 10.000 $ in the first year, invest them in financial instruments that have a guaranteed yield of 3% per year and also increase by 3% the amount you save each year.

10.000 $ might be much and 3% guaranteed might also seem much. But, over tens of years, the average yearly yield obtained by insurance companies was 7%. An yearly increase of our ability to save by 3% is not much. If we simulate a 7% yield and a 5% increase, we can start with 3500 $ per year or we can start with 10000 $, but stop after only 24 years.

Nobody guarantees 1a 7% yield and nobody guarantees that we will be able to keep increasing out savings by 5% each year. Although not guaranteed, this is certainly possible. Anyway, we can play with the lifetime savings page and find a plan which is both acceptable and reasonable.

OK! Let’s say we become millionaires in 30 - 35 years. Will we be the same millionaires as the nowadays millionaires? A million today is not the same thing as a million 35 years from now. The savings plan does not take inflation into account. To have a better view on the value of the money, I created pages that will show how much a million will be worth after a certain period of time or which is the current equivalent of a million that we will have after I do not know how many years.

For example, if we have a million dollars today and the inflation is 4% then, after 35 years, our million will be worth almost four millions. If we consider a 2% inflation, the values after 35 years will also decrease to two million.

We can also try it the other way around. If someone promises us a million dollars after 35 year, we should know that if the inflation is 4%, this will only be worth one quarter of a million and, in case the inflation is 2%, half million.

This billionaire activates in the financial world.

This billionaire stated the financial crysis is far from over.

This billionaire stated that no government addressed the fundamental problems that caused the crysis.

This billionaire stated that governments spend lots of money to avoid deflation and there is no immediate danger for high inflation.

This billionaire talked in such circumstances so that chances he was lying are slim.

Bill Gates is again the richest man in the world. According to Forbes, he surpassed Warren Buffet and Carlos Slim (these two were richer than Gates a year ago). The number of billionaires in the world decreased to 793 from 1125.

Here is the Forbes top 20:

1. Bill Gates: 40B$ - Microsoft, United States
2. Warren Buffett: 37B$ - Berkshire Hathaway, United States
3. Carlos Slim: 35B$ - Telecoms, Mexico
4. Lawrence Ellison; 22,5B$ - Oracle, United States
5. Ingvar Kamprad: 22B$ - Ikea, Sweden
6. Karl Albrecht: 21,5B$ - Aldi, Germany
7. Mukesh Ambani: 19,5B$ - Petrochemicals, India
8. Lakshmi Mittal: 19,3B$ - Mittal Steel, India
9. Theo Albrecht: 18,8B$ - Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Germany
10. Amancio Ortega: 18,3B$ - Zara, Spain
11. Jim Walton: 17,8B$ - Wal-Mart, United States
12. Alice Walton: 17,6B$ - Wal-Mart, United States
12. Christy Walton: 17,6B$ - Wal-Mart, United States
12. S. Robson Walton: 17,6B$ - Wal-Mart, United States
15. Bernard Arnault: 16,5B$ - LVMH, France
16. Li Ka-Shing: 16,2B$ - Diverse, Hong Kong
17. Michael Bloomberg: 16B$ - Bloomberg, United States
18. Stefan Persson: 14,5B$ - Hennes & Mauritz, Sweden
19. Charles Koch: 14B$ - Koch Industries, United States
20. David Koch: 14B$ - Koch Industries, United States

Japan follows Taiwan’s examples and decides to give each citizen 12000 JPY to spend in order to save the economy. This means each Japanese will get more than 120 USD.

The total value of the plan is about 20 billion USD. Is this a sign that the Taiwanese plan might have actually worked?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had, during the last trading day of February, a minimumvalue below 700 points. The close was above 7000.

We are waiting for the next milestones: close below 7000, minimum reaching 6000, minimum reaching 5000 and so on…

After saying that the peak of the current crisis will arrive after Obama’s Inauguration, it looks like George Soros did not guess it right.

Therefore, he now says that the crisis is bigger that he thought. Well, he got this one wrong! Life’s tough…

Now he tells us that we need a global anti-crisis plan. I guess we know that, don’t we?

It looks like the France government will help the troubled auto industry by giving Renault, Citroen and Peugeot a total of five or six billion euro.

So, the companies will have a little more money, but I do not think the real problem will be solved. When there are no customers, the companies cannot survive even if the state gives them money. OK, they do have customers, but their number decreases every month. And getting money from the state will allow the companies to cut prices, allowing more people to buy a new car.

But, most people are not interested in buying cars now. They just want to keep their jobs! If they have some money, they think it is better to save them for the time when they’ll lose the job instead of spending them on a car. If someone gets a loan to buy a car now, his or her IQ must be pretty low!

Every citizen in Taiwan received a coupon worth more than 100 USD that they can use to buy various things. This is part of a plan of boosting the economy.

It looks like a two billion dollars plan to stimulate the economy by allowing people to spend more. Interesting! I am curious whether it will work!

Japan reduced the key rate to 0.1%. This happened only a few days after the US reduced the key rate to a range 0% - 0.25%. This means it is now almost free to borrow money Maybe we’ll soon get a premium if we borrow money

Free money certainly entices everybody to spend more, but what will happen if everybody starts spending money they do not have without loosing anything? What happens to those who want to save money?