An “Economic Analyst” Blog

The second V in the W has started!

This billionaire activates in the financial world.

This billionaire stated the financial crysis is far from over.

This billionaire stated that no government addressed the fundamental problems that caused the crysis.

This billionaire stated that governments spend lots of money to avoid deflation and there is no immediate danger for high inflation.

This billionaire talked in such circumstances so that chances he was lying are slim.

One month ago, IMF said there will be no growth in 2009. Now, they updated their prognosis and they see a contraction of the world economy by 0.5% - 1%.

I guess someone should start trying to guess what the IMF prognosis in April will be so that we can have a prognosis of the prognosis…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had, during the last trading day of February, a minimumvalue below 700 points. The close was above 7000.

We are waiting for the next milestones: close below 7000, minimum reaching 6000, minimum reaching 5000 and so on…

During the current crisis, many prognoses were made. Some were optimistic, some were pessimistic. They varied from a short duration crisis to the end of the world.

Well, here is my “original” apocalyptic prognosis:

1. The crisis will last at least until 2020.
2. During the crisis all major currencies will suffer hyperinflation; this will eventually lead to the disappearance of the curent currency and the return to the gold standard.
3. World War III will take place during the crisis; it will be caused by the food crisis; nuclear weapons will be used during this war.
4. The World population will be less than one billion after the crisis.
5. One of the countries that will recover first will be France; but, France will emerge from the crisis as a monarchy.
6. France example will be followed by many countries and monarchies will be restored throughout Europe (one of the first countries to restore the monarchy will be Serbia).
7. The United States of America will split into several independent states.
8. Several countries will leave the European Union.
9. The Pope (Pius XIII) will flee Vatican City.
10. Some of the former members of the Soviet Union will decide to join Russia in a new federation.

Would you like more?

The International Monetary Fund revised its prognosis for the world economy growth from 0.5% to 0%. Therefore, now they expect the economy to be stagnant in 2009. Well, I expect it to shrink a little and I think they will, at some moment, revise the prognosis again.

Moreover, they expect the economy of the developed countries to shrink by 2% and many countries will need help provided by IMF in order to pass this difficult period.

But, “someone important” said a short time ago that IMF no longer has enough money. In this case, what is the purpose of announcing something like we cannot help, but many need our help? Something like help us to help others?

The second largest economy in the world shrank 3.3% in the last quarter, the annually contraction rate being 12.7%. Most prognosis did not indicate such a deep contraction.

If this contraction continues, Japan will soon lose its status of world’s second largest economy.

But, the Nikkei index only fell 0.4%. This might only mean that a deeper fall will soon follow or that it starts recovering, but was pushed back by the announcement.

After saying that the peak of the current crisis will arrive after Obama’s Inauguration, it looks like George Soros did not guess it right.

Therefore, he now says that the crisis is bigger that he thought. Well, he got this one wrong! Life’s tough…

Now he tells us that we need a global anti-crisis plan. I guess we know that, don’t we?

American billionaire George Soros thinks the peak of the current crisis will arrive in two months. If we do the math, we conclude that, after president Obama takes office, the problems will start solving themselves (or at least this is what Soros thinks). Maybe some psychological factor is also involved in this…

Anyway, apart from predicting the crisis peak, Soros does not forget to mentioned that he also predicted this crisis in his last book. This is obviously another prognosis that fits into this category. Nevertheless, it is interesting to see how these people insist on being able to make accurate prognoses by highlighting their right guesses and completely ignoring the wrong guesses.

Today, the italian finance minister claimed that the first person that predicted the current crysis was the current pope, Benedict XVI. In an article published by Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger in 1985, he stated that a decline in ethics can actually cause the laws of the market to collapse.

Apart from the fact that it is funny to try to make the Pope a “economic analyst”, in my opinion, this kind of prediction fits in the cathegory I mentioned here.

In addition to this, should we accept as granted the fact that the current crysis is caused by the decline in ethics? Was this proven? Or, at list, is this generally accepted?